Thursday, November 03, 2011

Israel And Iran Nearing Point Of No Return

Israel And Iran Nearing Point Of No Return

A Commentary by J. D. Longstreet

When US military forces leave Iraq next month, Israel’s door to Iran will swing wide open.  Iraqi airspace will be available for Israel’s air force for the first time since US troops invaded Iraq.

Tensions have been ramping up between the two government’s for the past year, or so, especially since Obama’s announcement that US forces would leave Iraq next month.

As a police officer many, many, decades ago, I learned, first hand, that some people just don’t know when to shut up.  Many times a police officer will find that he has to separate two people shouting threats at each other.  While one calms down the other continues, even after being warned multiple times to be quiet, shouting epithets, curses, and threats at his former antagonist.  More often that not, the loud-mouth finds him/herself face down on the ground, with his hands cuffed behind him, and on his way to jail.  As we indicated, some people just cannot grasp that there is a time to shut one’s mouth -- and keep it shut.

Such, it would seem, is Mr. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, President of Iran.  He continues yammering when he should simmer down.  One must consider the possibility that he is attempting to convince himself (more than anyone else) that Iran can destroy Israel. Ahmadinejad is on the brink of a rude awakening. He is about to talk himself into a thrashing of biblical proportions.

On the other hand Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel, has had more than enough of Mr. Ahmadinejad’s threats and posturing as well as Iran’s arming of proxy troops in nations surrounding Israel.  For Netanyahu -- it is put up or shut up time for Iran.

There is an extremely thin line of resistance to a preemptive attack on Iran in the Israeli government.  That resistance can dissipate at a moment’s notice, however.

I find it extremely difficult to believe that Iran has any idea of the strength and lethality of the Israeli Defense Forces. 

When the attack begins, it will not be simply an air attack.  It will be a three-pronged attack by the air, land, and sea forces of Israel.  It will rival America’s “shock and awe” attack on Iraq. 

This projection is based on Israel going it alone -- without US assistance. However, I expect US naval assets will guarantee the Straits of Hormuz will remain open, when the attack begins, and be joined in that effort by Israeli naval forces immediately after the opening few hours of battle.

Should the US Navy elect to stand down during Israel’s attack, the Israeli navy and IDF Special Forces are quite capable of removing Iranian missile emplacements that would certainly be used to fire on oil tankers and naval vessels in an attempt to close the Straits to out bound oil bearing ships.  An air attack on the Straits will be met by US aircraft -- defending the waterway -- and quickly smashed.

Netanyahu is former member of the IDF Special Forces.  He is no novice when it comes to matters of war.  Netanyahu’s brother was killed in the Israeli raid on the Entebbe airport in which many hostages from a highjacked airliner were being held.  The hostages were freed but the Netanyahu family, like so many Israeli families, felt the loss of a loved one to military conflict.  There can be no doubt that Netanyahu knows the pain of war.  He also understands that if Israel is to survive, it will be called upon, once again, to sacrifice it’s young on the bloody alter of war.

Delaying the inevitable is only going to intensify the conflict when it comes and probably extend it, as well. The IDF has been training for this war for years now.  Israel’s troops are keen, sharp, and leaning forward.  A number of its assets are; no doubt, already forward deployed and awaiting orders.

Even as US forces are leaving Iraq, the US is already building up its forces “in the area.”  It is said, publicly, to be a back up in case the experiment in nation building in Iraq begins to crumble – or -- Iran starts trouble in Iraq. 

The fact is, that once hostilities commence between Iran and Israel, Iran will most certainly make every effort it possibly can to kill American troops in the area they consider their sphere of influence. Therefore, it will be nigh on to impossible for the US to remain on the sidelines.

Americans must face the fact that America is at war and will remain in a state of war for as far as the eye can see into the future.  The US government should understand this and immediately cease all talk of cutting funding for the only thing that stands between Americans and their freedom:  The US Military.

J. D. Longstreet

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