October 2, 2007
For Immediate Release:
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT...Thompson Stronger Among People Who Decide GOP Elections
Excerpts From: "An In Depth Look at Who Votes & Decides the GOP Primaries: A Commentary by Douglas Schoen"
By Douglas Schoen
October 2, 2007
Rasmussen Reports polling has recently shown Fred Thompson leading the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination while most other polls place Rudy Giuliani in the lead and Thompson in second.
The difference is primarily the result of the fact that Rasmussen screens for Likely Primary Voters while others do not.
...Gallup numbers are very similar to the Rasmussen numbers. Not only does Gallup's sample of informed voters show Thompson ahead of Giuliani, they also match Rasmussen by showing Romney ahead of McCain.
Why does Gallup's sample of informed voters look so much like the Rasmussen sample of Likely Voters? Because those more informed voters are precisely the kind of people who show up and vote in a primary.
The fact that a Likely Voter sample shows more support for Thompson than a sample of all adults also makes intuitive sense because we know that primary voters tend to be somewhat more conservative than Republicans in general. And, as Rasmussen data has shown, Thompson is perceived by voters as the most conservative candidate seeking the GOP nomination.
The implications of this analysis are clear: Fred Thompson is in a much stronger position among the people who will actually decide Republican primaries and caucuses than most observers understand. And Rudy Giuliani's support is sufficiently soft and is made up in part of voters who are attracted to his celebrity and have a much lower likelihood of actually voting.
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